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School of Physical, Environmental and Mathematical Sciences |
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Research Interests:
Statistics
Current Research Projects
Frailty Modelling (Dr Joanne Chapman with Prof. Robin Henderson)
Random errors and unmeasurable association within clusters cannot be assumed Normally distributed and ignored in survival analysis as in other areas. The frailty term is introduced to represent these unknowns. A typical assumption is that the frailty variable follows a gamma distribution. Models which extend existing models and allow for the possibility of negative correlation within clusters (as often seen in animal litters) are being developed.
Predicting university performance (Dr Joanne Chapman with Dr Steven Barry)
University admissions in Australia are dictated primarily by entrance ranking scores (TER) based on all courses taken in secondary school. However, these are unreliable indicators of ability to do mathematically-based university courses. Differences in mathematical curricula between Australian states also complicate admissions for students moving interstate, especially with 19 or more different mathematical courses being offered in high schools across Australia. Our research compares student TER and performance in a diagnostic test, against their university grade at the end of one semester to find a better predictor than simple TER measures. Our research also looks at the difference in performance of students with the same level of ability in different courses.
The effects of prescribed burning (Dr Joanne Chapman with Dr Karen King)
In many landscapes an important fire management objective is to reduce the negative impacts from unplanned fires on people, property and ecological values. In Australia there exists an inherent assumption that high spatial variability in fire ages and hence fuel loads will have negative effects on both the incidence and spread of subsequent fires, and will enhance ecological values. Our research using the process based computer simulation model, FIRESCAPE-SWTAS, predicts a number of relationships between prescribed burn treatment levels and spatial patterning and management objectives in south west Tasmania, Australia. Further research additionally explores the effects of prescribed burning treatment unit size on unplanned fire incidence and area burned both in the general landscape and specifically in fire-intolerant vegetation.
Research Collaborators
Statistics:
- Jennifer Hollis – Postgraduate student at UNSW@ADFA and Bushfire CRC
- Dr Karen King – Postdoctoral Fellow, The Australian National University and Bushfire CRC
- Prof. Robin Henderson – University of Newcastle, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
Science Education:
- Dr Steve Barry – UNSW@ADFA
Recent Publications
Amos, K.J., Croke, J.C., Hughes, A.O., Chapman, J., Takken, I. & Lymburner, L., in press, A catchment-scale assessment of anabranching in the 143 000 km 2 Fitzroy River catchment, north-eastern Australia, Earth Surface Processes and Landforms.
King, K.J., Bradstock, R.A., Cary, G.J., Chapman, J., & Marsden-Smedley, J.B., in press, The relative importance of fine scale fuel mosaics on reducing fire risk in south west Tasmania, Australia, International Journal of Wildland Fire.
Barry, S.I. & Chapman, J., 2007, Predicting university performance: how diagnostic tests, school results and high school courses affect university performance, J. ANZIAM (E.), 49, C36-C50.
King, K.J., Cary, G.J., Bradstock, R., Chapman, J.S., Pyrke, A. & Marsden-Smedley, J.B., 2006, Simulation of prescribed burning strategies in south-west Tasmania, Australia: Effects on unplanned fires, fire regimes, and ecological management values, International Journal of Wildland Fire, 15(5), 527-540.
King, K. & Chapman, J.S., 2006, Using Statistics to determine the effectiveness of prescribed burning, Proceedings of the International Statistics Workshop, P. Brown, S. Liu, D Sharma, (eds), University of Canberra, Singapore, pp. 73-88.