Seminar: Effect of Aging on Urban Land Prices in China


School of Business Seminar Room, Level 1, Building 27, UNSW Canberra

12.15pm to 12.45pm

This paper investigates the effect of demographic changes on land prices in urban China using an Overlapping Generation (OLG) model. The model suggests that the rapid rise in land prices could be explained by the rise in per capita income and demographic changes.  This finding is validated by fitting the historical data of China. We then simulate land price dynamics for China from 2000 to 2100. The simulation indicates that the rate of rise in land prices is softening. From 2035 to 2055, the effect of demographic changes on urban land prices in China will be close to zero. After 2055, the effect will turn to negative until the end of this century; however, a meltdown is unlikely.


 Tianyu Sun is a PhD student of UNSW Canberra. Tianyu Sun’s PhD research focuses on how aging population would affect house prices, and China is chosen as one of the typical examples. Besides, his research interest also includes macroeconomic modelling, financial econometrics, and computational intelligence. His education includes a Master's degree from South China University of Technology (Guangzhou, China), and a Bachelor's degree from Wuhan University (Wuhan, China).