Research themes
The Capability Systems Centre undertakes research on a range of topics associated with force design (mission engineering) and decision support for the portfpolio, program and project manager across the capability life cycle. Our research includes, but is not limited to, the following topics as they apply to a specified context.
Evaluation of the effectiveness of systems thinking and system dynamics
Systems Thinking and System Dynamics (ST/SD) present a holistic framework (of concepts, methodologies, techniques, and tools) that can be used to support problem solving in dynamic complex systems. An ST/SD approach aims to untangle the complex interrelationships between system components, processes, boundaries, objectives, and stakeholders.
Whereas there are many claims in the literature about the potential of using an ST/SD approach to understand and learn about complexity, this is still limited to being a largely untested hypothesis with little empirical evidence, much of which is inconclusive. This status not only raises scepticism about the value of ST/SD, but also implies a wasted learning opportunity for the field to grow and improve. The need for rigorous ST/SD research is critical, especially at a time of increasingly tight resources where funds (in the research, education, and management sectors) tend to be directed towards high-impact research topics. Recently, the topic of evaluating ST/SD methods has gained increasing attention in the literature (Midgley et al., 2013; Scott et al., 2013). The design and conduct of rigorous evaluation studies involve addressing the following questions:
- What are the requirements for designing and running a rigorous and pragmatic evaluation approach?
- How can we mix qualitative and quantitative instruments in evaluation design?
- How can we make use of established theories (e.g. a behavioural theory, learning theories, program evaluation theories) to support the design of evaluation experiments and to explain results?
- What are the implications of web-based technologies and distance learning modes on the use and evaluation of ST/SD techniques and tools?
- How can we transfer findings (of all the above) from an experimental setting to a real-life situation?
Scott, R. J., Cavana, R. Y., & Cameron, D. (2013). Evaluating immediate and long-term impacts of qualitative group model building workshops on participants' mental models. System Dynamics Review, 29(4), 216-236.
Midgley, G., Cavana, R. Y., Brocklesby, J., Foote, J. L., Wood, D. R., & Ahuriri-Driscoll, A. (2013). Towards a new framework for evaluating systemic problem structuring methods. European Journal of Operational Research, 229(1), 143-154.
Associated Projects
Project: Investigating decision making using stock and flow problems
This project aims to contribute to understanding dynamic decision making by exploring: (1) how people understand the dynamic models underlying a task with various levels of complexity, and (2) mechanisms or tools to improve people’s understanding and decision making. Using a class of problems known as the “Accumulation” or “Stock-and-Flow” problems, we conduct a series of laboratory experiments which allow us to examine individual’s dynamic decision making capabilities.
Findings from this study carry implications for research and education in the areas of decision making and complex problem solving.
- On the research side, the study will generate empirical knowledge on factors (i.e. individual-related, problem-related) that explain thinking and decision making capabilities in dynamic situations. This knowledge can be used to validate and extend existing theoretical dynamic decision making models and problem solving methodologies based on these theories.
- In practice, this knowledge can be used to inform decision making, such as devising mechanisms to select people most well-suited to deal with specific dynamic problems.
On the professional education side, it contributes to the development of effective methods that can improve students’ systems and dynamic thinking ability. Part of this is examining the effects of individual differences in explaining effectiveness of these methods.
Future proofing and sustainability
System design for a long lifecycle, or for a long life through multiple lifecycles, must focus on much more than the acquisition of the system and must take into account design issues arising from the entire system lifecycle. Considering whole-of-lifecycle issues early in system design is an important step towards developing an efficient and long-lasting sustainable design. In recent years, lifecycle issues are becoming increasingly important to designers as stakeholders are much more aware of the total cost of ownership over the system’s life as well as the system’s impact on the environment.
The future-proofing deals with the issues associated with creating a design that lasts for a sufficiently long time. Future-proofing aims to ensure that a system will not be superseded by the need for future capability in a long lifecycle, and will facilitate anticipated future modifications. The FP concept considers evolution of future requirements i.e. some aspect(s) of the future use of the system such that, when the anticipated need does arise, the system will be prepared to the full extent or to some desired degree. However, as short-lived systems are a reason for environmental and economic concern; long-lived systems are problematic as well. Their maintenance and infrastructure requires an increasing volume of monetary and resource expenditures, without providing additional welfare. They need to be cleaned, upgraded, repaired, or renovated to continue providing the same value throughout the system life.
Research question
The aim of this research is to explore and investigate design methods for future-proof systems that lasts for sufficiently long time and ensure system sustainability by creating balance among economic, environment and social needs. The research will explicitly directed towards exploring answers for following two research issues:
1. establishing a set of principles that can guide future-proofing design so that both future proofing and sustainability can be addressed in designing for the lifecycle.
2. developing a framework to support an analytical method for system design for sustainable future-proofing.
Application
This research is an applied research which is applicable to civil, government and defence sectors that require their systems/policies to remain in service for long time and be resilient to future changes. Some applications are given below:
- Force design
- Capability development
- Long-term policy initiatives
- National security, etc
Modelling for force design
Systems Thinking and System Dynamics (ST/SD) models and simulations have always played an important role in engineering and systems engineering. Physical scale models, full-sized models, and computer models are commonly used in all forms of engineering and design. In recent times, interest in modelling has increased to span the full system lifecycle and there has been a significant focus on Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE). The extension of formal modelling into all phases, and particularly the conceptual design phase, of a system development is a significant step and proponents of MBSE suggest that it will provide considerable benefits. However, modelling for conceptual design (for force design) requires a different approachsince functions are being modelled, not physical system elements.
Project management
Risk and complexity management in systems engineering
Investigating application of possibility theory to systems engineering risk management
Complex systems are characterized by many future possibilities each with a tiny probability. The traditional risk analysis that considers probability versus impact might not be helpful when the number of futures is too many. This project aims at finding parallel risk management methods based on possibility theory rather than probability theory. This project is highly mathematical and is a suitable for a candidate with deep understanding of probability, fuzzy set and possibility theories.
Investigation of failure propagation mechanisms in complex systems
The aim of this project is to characterise failure propagation in various kinds of systems such as enterprises (human systems), software and hardware systems, mechanical systems and heterogeneous systems such as system of systems. The models are then used to characterise the fragility and robustness of these systems. The generated models are then put into the more general context of resilience engineering where various resilience engineering mechanisms are validated against characteristics of system responses to failure propagation.
Probabilistic systems engineering model: synthesis and validation
The aim of this project is to synthesize building blocks of a Probabilistic Systems Engineering Model and its validation. The model would be based on probabilistic success in execution of systems engineering task and resulting rework. Four basic systems engineering tasks are considered initially:
1) Problem identification
2) Solution Synthesis
3) Integration
4) Test
For each of these tasks will be characterised with a set of probability measures that will indicate the success or failure. Then these measures are applied to a network view the system. One major task in this project is the identification of an appropriate solver for the network such as Bayesian network, Petri Net, generalised networks or other models based random graph theory. The solver must be able to identify lead time, rework and quality of the constructed system.
Systems architecture optimisation
System architecture evaluation and optimisation at early conceptual design stage
Defence systems acquisition is fraught with all sorts of financial, technical and political risks. The most effective way of mitigating risks associated with acquisition of complex systems is through identification of these risks as early as possible. This project’s aim is to facilitate optimal decision making for multi stakeholder system design.
This project sets to examine an architectural selection model based on minimal information at early stages of conceptual design. The system architecture, determined by integration and test plans is a key factor in management of the uncertainties associated with technology, processes and tests. This project will examine and categorise these uncertainties and will investigate ways of evaluating competing system architectures based on the identified risks, such as through estimation of the likely values and variances of project cost and time associated with each architecture.
An integrated stakeholder preference modelling and tradespace evaluation framework
This project’s aim is to facilitate optimal decision making for multi stakeholder system design. This study will investigation all available preference modelling methods and asses their utility for integration with Tradespace exploration techniques.
Creating and managing system modularity: a trade off and optimality analysis
Modularity as a system property has many benefits for different lifecycle stages of a system. This project is an investigation of a complete set of these benefits as well as a search for optimum formation of the modules for maximum benefit to all or some the identified benefits, at early design stages.
Investigation of methods and methodologies for systems engineering of non-functional requirements
Systems Engineering methodology applies aptly to functional design of systems. However, for non-functional requirements, the current methodology does not have a lot to offer and there is a lack of concrete methodologies for non-functional systems engineering. Specific modularization of systems elements is a powerful tool for the design of the non-functional requirements into the systems. This project investigates ways that modularization can be integrated into the standard systems engineering process. It also may involve creation of a complete taxonomy for non-functional requirements and their ontology.
Human systems engineering
Investigating best practices in human-systems integration and engineering methodologies
This project aims at identifying current state of the art human systems integration techniques and creation of framework for an overarching or generalized human system integration framework that can be substantiated for different kinds of systems. Human systems integration practices are very domain specific for example healthcare, defence, aerospace etc. However, there is no agreed upon methodology that can be instantiated for any kind of systems. This project takes step back to the principles of human systems integration and based on those principles creates a methodology for human systems integration. The project will include an investigation of the role of human systems integration in engineering of complex systems.
Investigation of competency model integration with project management
This project is part of a much larger vision to measure complexity of projects from subjective views for task and resource allocation purposes. Several competency models have been proposed and used in defence. The project aims at:
1) Identifying usability of competency frameworks with task complexity measurement
2) Integration of competency frameworks with task complexity measure
3) Investigation of optimality and validity of system selection for minimum complexity given set of available resources and their competency models and set of problem space elements
Potential student projects
Risk and complexity management in systems engineering
Investigating application of possibility theory to systems engineering risk management
Complex systems are characterised by many future possibilities each with a tiny probability. The traditional risk analysis that considers probability versus impact might not be helpful when the number of futures is too many. This project aims at finding parallel risk management methods based on possibility theory rather than probability theory. This project is highly mathematical and is a suitable for a candidate with deep understanding of probability, fuzzy set and possibility theories.
Investigation of failure propagation mechanisms in complex systems
The aim of this project is to characterise failure propagation in various kinds of systems such as enterprises (human systems), software and hardware systems, mechanical systems and heterogeneous systems such as system of systems. The models are then used to characterise the fragility and robustness of these systems. The generated models are then put into the more general context of resilience engineering where various resilience engineering mechanisms are validated against characteristics of system responses to failure propagation.
Probabilistic systems engineering model: synthesis and validation
The aim of this project is to synthesise building blocks of a probabilistic systems engineering model and its validation. The model would be based on probabilistic success in execution of systems engineering task and resulting rework. Four basic systems engineering tasks are considered initially:
- Problem identification
- Solution Synthesis
- Integration
- Test
For each of these tasks will be characterised with a set of probability measures that will indicate the success or failure. Then these measures are applied to a network view the system. One major task in this project is the identification of an appropriate solver for the network such as Bayesian network, Petri Net, generalised networks or other models based random graph theory. The solver must be able to identify lead time, rework and quality of the constructed system.
Systems architecture optimisation
System architecture evaluation and optimisation at early conceptual design stage
Defence systems acquisition is fraught with all sorts of financial, technical and political risks. The most effective way of mitigating risks associated with acquisition of complex systems is through identification of these risks as early as possible. This project’s aim is to facilitate optimal decision making for multi stakeholder system design.
This project sets to examine an architectural selection model based on minimal information at early stages of conceptual design. The system architecture, determined by integration and test plans is a key factor in management of the uncertainties associated with technology, processes and tests. This project will examine and categorise these uncertainties and will investigate ways of evaluating competing system architectures based on the identified risks, such as through estimation of the likely values and variances of project cost and time associated with each architecture.
An integrated stakeholder preference modelling and tradespace evaluation framework
This project’s aim is to facilitate optimal decision making for multi stakeholder system design. This study will investigation all available preference modelling methods and asses their utility for integration with Tradespace exploration techniques.
Creating and managing system modularity: a trade off and optimality analysis
Modularity as a system property has many benefits for different lifecycle stages of a system. This project is an investigation of a complete set of these benefits as well as a search for optimum formation of the modules for maximum benefit to all or some the identified benefits, at early design stages.
Investigation of methods and methodologies for systems engineering of non-functional requirements
Systems engineering methodology applies aptly to functional design of systems. However, for non-functional requirements, the current methodology does not have a lot to offer and there is a lack of concrete methodologies for non-functional systems engineering. Specific modularisation of systems elements is a powerful tool for the design of the non-functional requirements into the systems. This project investigates ways that modularisation can be integrated into the standard systems engineering process. It also may involve creation of a complete taxonomy for non-functional requirements and their ontology.
Human systems engineering
Investigating best practices in human-systems integration and engineering methodologies
This project aims at identifying current state of the art human systems integration techniques and creation of framework for an overarching or generalised human system integration framework that can be substantiated for different kinds of systems. Human systems integration practices are very domain specific for example healthcare, defence, aerospace etc. However, there is no agreed upon methodology that can be instantiated for any kind of systems. This project takes step back to the principles of human systems integration and based on those principles creates a methodology for human systems integration. The project will include an Investigation of the role of human systems integration in engineering of complex systems.
Investigation of competency model integration with project management
This project is part of a much larger vision to measure complexity of projects from subjective views for task and resource allocation purposes. Several competency models have been proposed and used in defence. The project aims at:
- Identifying usability of competency frameworks with task complexity measurement
- Integration of competency frameworks with task complexity measure
- Investigation of optimality and validity of system selection for minimum complexity given set of available resources and their competency models and set of problem space elements
